- Next significant move will be up
- High will come in May
- Followed by a sharp sell off
In my last post, 10/19/2009, I was looking for an intermediate market top, a sell off and then a rally into year-end. The market obliged and dropped from 1,100 on the S&P 500 that very day to a 1,030 low on Nov. 2. This was followed by a rally ending with a 1,150 close in January. A second sell off took the S&P down 9 percent to its February low of 1,044. Four trading days ago, the market closed at 1,102 giving us four plus months with virtually zero gain…
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Posted by Michael Chapman at 12:00 PM UTC
- Short term top due month of October
- Look for a 16 percent correction down
- Then rally back up into year-end
Time, price, form and sentiment suggest Intermediate top between now and the end of October. Somewhere near 1,106 – 1,133 on the S&P 500 and 10,333 on the cash DOW.
This high will be followed by a fairly significant 16 percent move down into late November.
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Posted by Michael Chapman at 11:12 AM UTC
- First Upside Price Level Objective Met
- Flat Sideways Correction Complete
- S&P 500 Index Should Move Up to 1010
In my last post 04/01/2009 I was looking for a multi-month rally with an S&P 500 price level objective of 950 to 1010. We hit 956 on June 11. We finished our first drive up at 930 on May 8 exactly 2 months from the March 6 low. The high in June was the end of leg b in a FLAT abc correction. Leg c of this correction ended July 8 at 870. We should have one more drive higher to the 1010 area and then we may see a significant pull back.This upside objective may be hit as early as August 21-26.
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Posted by Michael Chapman at 2:20 PM UTC
- Multi-Month Rally Ahead
- Technical Support for a Rally
- Fundamental Support…CASH
The S&P 500 cash index just finished a very impressive 14-trading-day run from 667 to 833. This was a 25 percent move; CNBC tells us you would have to go back to 1938 to find a similar event.
Those of you familiar with this report know that I like to list reasons for the market to go up on the left side of the page and reasons for a declining market on the right (hence the “Bull/Bear Review”). Once finished one can stand back to review the weight of the evidence and have a good read on the near term (3 month) direction of the market.
Today that evidence, as seen below, falls decisively in the Bull camp. I am projecting a multi-month rally. My first upside objective is the 950 to 1,010 basis the S&P 500 cash.
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Posted by Michael Chapman at 12:00 PM UTC
