Our Provident Digest Blog was created to show case other author’s work that we felt had merit and would be beneficial to our readers. The attached Living Cycles news letter is published weekly by Jack Winkleman. It is purely technical in nature. Page one is a focus on the upcoming expected short term daily highs and lows. Page two takes a longer term perspective and looks at the overall pattern of expected price movement for the year. I have followed Jack’s work for over twenty four years and it’s my opinion that he is one of the nations top market timing analysts.
Living Cycles Newsletter (PDF) >>>
Posted by Michael Chapman at 3:00 PM PST
- Trading range market
- Economy seems to be muddling through
- Intermediate lows now in for financial stocks
As I said last week, the S&P 500 index is in a trading range from 1,480 on the down side to 1,580 on the upside. We are at the bottom of this range and I look for us to trade out the topside by Thanksgiving.
Early in the week third quarter GDP numbers came in at up 3.9%. This made two quarters in a row at that level and raised concern that the economy was too strong and that we wouldn’t get a rate cut at the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
The Fed did cut its rate 1/4 point but made it clear that the economy seemed to be on solid footing. They were most concerned about inflation. On Thursday an analyst put out a sell recommendation on a prominent bank stock and the markets, fearing that “the other shoe in the credit markets? was about to drop, sold off sharply. The Jobs reports this morning gave a little good news to every one. Larry Kudlows’ sound bite, “The greatest story ever told” is ringing in my ears as I see that we added 166,000 new jobs in October, the street was only expecting 80,000, and at the same time had only a .23% increase in wage growth. The jobs growth number should ease concern about the economy going into the abyss and the Fed should be pleased, given their inflation concerns, that the wage growth rate came in less then expected. Do I hear Goldilocks knocking at the door?
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Posted by Michael Chapman at 2:13 PM PDT
