Quant Coalescence

May, 2016: Some cattle, pork bellies and corn for thought?

According to statistics and research credited to Factset's John Butters, “as of May 6th, 2016, 1st quarter earnings are coming in at -7.1% year over year with 87% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported. This marks the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. For Q2 2016, 55 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 24 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.....

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Market Pulse

PCM 2016 Market Outlook: January 11, 2016

I believe that the U.S. financial markets may be nearing the end of the third stock market bubble in fifteen years. By some measures, equity valuations have reached the most extreme point in history. Market "internals" are starting to break down. Unless one has a 25 year time horizon, now is one of the worst times in history to enter into a traditionally allocated "buy and hold" equity and bond portfolio.

Using seasons as a metaphor, it is late fall in the U.S. equity market and economic cycle. There is a winter season coming. Between now and 2022, broad U.S. equity indexes are at risk of falling 50% to 60%.

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